Global Air Freight Rates Begin to Slide as 2026 Takes Off

Global air freight rates have started to slide as the new year gets underway, reflecting a predictable return of seasonality and a growing mismatch between capacity and demand.

In the first week of January, the Baltic Air Freight Index - a key measure of global air cargo pricing - fell sharply, declining about 14% and settling roughly 11% lower than the same time last year, according to data from TAC Index. This marks a notable downward shift in pricing after several months of relatively elevated rates in late 2025.

Seasonality Returns

The rate slide is largely a seasonal phenomenon. The period following the peak holiday shipping season typically sees reduced demand, as freight volumes ease back toward normal levels while available capacity held over from the end of the peak remains in place.

Carriers, facing this post-peak drop, tend to compete more aggressively for fewer shipments, putting pressure on spot rates.

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Market sentiments from freight brokers support this seasonal story. Recent commentaries indicate that this softening could be temporary, with some expectations that rates might begin to firm again as factories fully resume production and shippers ramp up activity ahead of Chinese New Year later in February. But for now, excess capacity is keeping rate momentum in check.

Demand and Capacity Factors

While demand for air cargo remains up on a year-over-year basis, growth is moderating and has not been sufficient to absorb expanding capacity. In December, global cargo volumes rose about 6% compared to the prior year, yet supply grew slightly faster, resulting in a surplus that weighs on rates.

As a result, average global air freight rates in late 2025 were down around 4% year-on-year and continuing that trend into the new year.

Additionally, demand drivers that bolstered rates in recent years, particularly rapid e-commerce growth, have weakened. China’s cross-border e-commerce exports, a major contributor to air cargo volumes, showed sluggish growth late in 2025, further softening demand relative to capacity.

There has been warnings of broader rate pressure heading into 2026. Reports from market intelligence firms highlighted a capacity surplus and forecasted further rate softening throughout the year as carriers compete for market share and contract renewals loom.

Trade Lane Variations

The slide in freight rates is not uniform across all trade lanes. Post-peak season volume drops have disproportionately affected certain routes, particularly Asia-outbound corridors, where rates have shown sharper declines.

However, some lanes that experienced strong 2025 peak demand such as intra-Europe or specialty pharma shipments, have been more resilient.

Regional economic factors also play a role. Broader macroeconomic signals point to subdued consumer spending growth in key markets like the U.S., tempering import demand that typically drives transpacific cargo demand in early January.

What’s Next?

Looking ahead, most industry observers expect the current rate softness to be part of normal market cycles, with potential seasonal rebounds as shippers prepare for Chinese New Year and peak spring buying periods. But unless demand picks up more quickly or carriers significantly reduce capacity, downward pressure on air freight rates is likely to continue in the near term.

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