Insight: Broken Aerospace Supply Chains Ground Airline Growth

Persistent bottlenecks across the aerospace supply chain are slowing airline and air-cargo growth, limiting the industry’s ability to expand fleets and meet rising demand.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), shortages of aircraft, engines and critical components are likely to constrain airlines well into the next decade.

Despite some improvement in late 2025, IATA says demand for new aircraft will continue to exceed supply through at least 2031–2034. More than 5,300 aircraft deliveries are running behind schedule, and the global order backlog has climbed beyond 17,000 units - almost 60% of the world’s active fleet.

Delays hit airline plans

Those numbers translate into very real operational problems for carriers. Several airlines have already had to rewrite growth plans because new jets simply aren’t arriving.

Ryanair, one of Boeing’s largest customers, cut parts of its summer schedule in both 2024 and 2025 after repeated 737 MAX delivery delays.

The airline had expected dozens of aircraft to arrive in time for the peak season, but slower production and extended quality-control inspections pushed deliveries back by months. The carrier has warned that the same could happen again in 2026 if output doesn’t stabilize.

Airbus A320 Global Grounding Strains Air Cargo Networks

In the Middle East, flydubai and Saudia have reported similar disruptions tied to narrow-body delivery shortfalls. Flydubai has publicly stated that slower-than-planned MAX deliveries forced it to adjust route launches and keep older aircraft flying longer than intended.

Airbus customers face their own challenges. Many airlines relying on A320neo-family jets have seen schedules slip because engine makers, particularly Pratt & Whitney, have struggled to supply and service geared turbofan engines at the pace required.

Indigo, Lufthansa, Air New Zealand and others have had parts shortages and engine overhauls that grounded aircraft and delayed incoming A320neo and A321neo deliveries.

Wide-body production has also run behind expectations. Qantas’s long-haul fleet renewal has suffered delays tied to Boeing 787 output constraints, while airlines waiting for Airbus A350s - including major carriers in Asia - have been told to expect stretched timelines as suppliers try to keep up with ramp-up targets.

These examples reflect what IATA describes as a structural issue rather than a temporary slowdown.

Older fleets, higher costs

With new aircraft arriving late, airlines and cargo operators are keeping older jets in service longer. The average global fleet age has risen to 15.1 years, and cargo aircraft average nearly 20 years. Older jets burn more fuel, break more often and require longer maintenance checks.

IATA estimates these supply constraints will cost airlines more than US$11 billion in 2025 through higher fuel spending, elevated maintenance costs, short-term engine leasing and increased spare-parts inventories.

Air cargo carriers feel the strain acutely. Demand for e-commerce shipments keeps rising, yet dedicated freighters - especially modern, fuel-efficient wide-bodies - are in short supply. Delays in new freighter programs and limited availability of passenger aircraft suitable for conversion restrain capacity growth just as logistics markets seek more lift.

Why bottlenecks persist

The roots of the problem run deep. Engine production continues to lag airframe output. Manufacturers have delivered aircraft that sit idle waiting for engines or replacement engine modules. Certification timelines for new models have stretched from one to two years historically to four or more in recent cycles, slowing entry into service.

Suppliers also face shortages of skilled labor, particularly in machining, composites and engine assembly. Trade frictions have increased costs and complicated sourcing for metals and electronic components. And because the aerospace supply chain is highly concentrated, small disruptions - whether a factory shutdown or a material shortage - ripple quickly across aircraft programs.

Attempts at fixes

Manufacturers are making structural changes. Boeing’s acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems aims to simplify production flows and reduce delays in the 737 and 787 lines. Engine makers are expanding repair capacity and reworking inspection programs to reduce the number of engines grounded at once.

Airlines are pushing for clearer delivery schedules, better access to aftermarket parts and more transparent coordination among suppliers. Still, most acknowledge the constraints won’t disappear quickly.

Outlook

Analysts expect the mismatch between demand and available aircraft to remain a defining issue of the next several years. Passenger demand is strong, air cargo is growing steadily and airlines want to modernize fleets for efficiency and emissions goals. But until supply chains stabilize, carriers will face continued limits on how fast they can grow.

The aviation industry may be entering a period where demand isn’t the problem, supply is!

Read More: Global Air Cargo Demand Sets New Record in October