While the aviation sector faces unprecedented challenges, the future still holds opportunities in the long term
Aerospace giant Boeing has stated its annual forecast, the Boeing Market Outlook (BMO), that the commercial aviation and services markets will continue to face significant challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, but that the sector will still see growth in the longer term.
"While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defense will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and emerge with strength," said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen.
The BMO forecasts a total market value of US$8.5 trillion over the next decade including demand for aerospace products and services.
The forecast is down from $8.7 trillion a year ago due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Airlines globally have begun to recover from a greater than 90% decline in passenger traffic and revenue early this year, but a full recovery will take years, according to the outlook.
The 2020 Boeing Market Outlook includes projected demand for 18,350 commercial aeroplanes in the next decade – 11% lower than the comparable 2019 forecast – valued at about $2.9 trillion.
In the longer term, with key industry drivers expected to remain stable, the commercial fleet is forecasted to return to its growth trend, generating demand for more than 43,000 new airplanes in the 20-year forecast time period.
The BMO also projects a $2.6 trillion market opportunity for defense and space during the next decade.
A $3 trillion market opportunity
While near-term commercial services demand is lower, the BMO forecasts a $3 trillion market opportunity for commercial and government services through 2029, with digital solutions emerging as a critical enabler as customers focus on leaner operations to adjust to future market demand.
Life cycle services and support will help customers scale their operations to meet efficiency and cost objectives aligned to market recovery trends.
"Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year, significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for airplanes and services," said Darren Hulst, vice president, Commercial Marketing.
"Yet history has also proven air travel to be resilient time and again.
"The current disruption will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks and business model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest efficiency at the lowest risk for sustainable growth."
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