Back to Suez, but Not All at Once

Major shipping lines are quietly laying the groundwork for a possible return to the Suez Canal, weighing lower costs and faster transit times against security risks that have kept many vessels away from the route for nearly two years.

Since late 2023, attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have forced carriers to divert large portions of Asia–Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

The detours added up to two weeks to voyage times, burned more fuel, and disrupted schedules across global supply chains. While the security situation remains fragile, shipping executives say the pressure to normalize operations is growing.

Several large carriers, including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM, are now developing phased return strategies rather than committing to an immediate, full-scale resumption of Suez transits. These plans focus on flexibility, allowing vessels to switch routes at short notice if threats escalate.

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Meanwhile, Ocean Network Express (ONE) has officially announced the launch of its new Red-Sea China Service (RCS).

According to industry sources, one common approach by big liners involves deploying smaller or less time-sensitive ships on the Suez route first, while keeping flagship services on the longer Cape route.

Carriers are also studying convoy-style transits and tighter coordination with naval forces operating in the region, particularly during high-risk passages near Yemen.

Insurance remains a major factor. War risk premiums surged after attacks intensified, at times making the Suez route financially unattractive despite its shorter distance.

Insurers have since refined their pricing models, offering voyage-by-voyage coverage and discounts tied to enhanced onboard security measures. Shipping lines are factoring these evolving insurance terms into route planning models alongside fuel prices and charter rates.

Technology is also playing a larger role in decision-making. Real-time threat intelligence, satellite monitoring, and predictive risk analytics are being integrated into operations centers to support dynamic routing. Several carriers have invested in upgraded communications and crew training to improve readiness if ships are targeted or need rapid assistance.

For Egypt, a return of traffic would be a welcome development. Revenues for the Suez Canal Authority fell sharply as transits declined, highlighting the canal’s vulnerability to regional instability.

Officials have repeatedly said the waterway remains safe and are working with international partners to reassure shipowners, though most carriers remain cautious.

Shippers and cargo owners are watching closely. A return to the Suez Canal could ease capacity constraints, stabilize freight rates, and improve schedule reliability, particularly for European imports.

However, many logistics managers say they expect a gradual shift rather than a sudden reversal, with mixed routing likely to persist well into next year.

In the end, the decision to return will hinge on confidence as much as cost. As one industry executive put it, the Suez Canal is no longer an all-or-nothing choice. For now, shipping lines are preparing for a future where route decisions are made voyage by voyage, balancing efficiency with an ever-present eye on security.

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