US Tariff Uncertainties are Shaking Up Global Freight Markets

The ongoing roller coaster of US trade tariffs is sending ripples through the global freight industry, forcing major logistics players to adjust expectations, slash costs and rethink routing strategies.

While global trade volume remains resilient, the freight market - especially for ocean and air transport - is absorbing significant strain.

Big Carriers Sound the Alarm

DSV, one of the world’s largest freight forwarders, cut the upper end of its full-year earnings forecast in October by about US$155 million, citing “challenging market conditions related to trade tariffs” and a visible deterioration in global trade flows.

DSV warned that cost-reductions may need to go “beyond the synergies” planned for its takeover of DB Schenker, due in large part to tariffs and other freight-market headwinds.

Meanwhile, DHL Group has flagged the broader logistics complexity created by US tariffs and associated trade policy shifts. On its website, DHL notes that rapidly evolving tariff landscapes require businesses to reassess supply chains and face higher costs for customs clearance, documentation and logistics execution.

A separate DHL-/New York University Stern School study shows that although global trade volumes continue to grow, forecasts for North America were trimmed owing to US tariff pressure.

Global Trade Remains On Track Despite US Tariff Turbulence

One of the most immediate impacts has been on container and air-cargo freight flows. The ocean-shipping industry is bracing for turbulent waters as US tariff threats dampen demand and weaken carriers’ negotiating leverage on freight contracts.

Though not all segments are collapsing, analysts expect subpar growth: the global trade-volume forecast for 2025-2029 was revised downward from ~3.1% to ~2.5% annually after tariff rises. For North America it dropped further to ~1.5%.

What this means for logistics companies:

• Customers delaying or rerouting shipments ahead of tariffs, generating short-term spikes followed by slower volumes.

• Increased complexity in routing and customs: tariff classification, bonded warehousing and duty‐drawback schemes become more central.

• Pricing pressure for freight carriers: Contract renegotiation seasons are confronting weaker demand and higher risk of rate cuts.

Who’s Feeling the Pinch - and How Are They Responding?

In DSV’s case, the company is proactively cutting costs - both to mitigate lower volumes and to absorb the impact of tariff-related disruption. The forwarding giant is integrating its massive acquisition of Schenker, but even faster integration won’t fully offset the headwinds.

For DHL, the approach is more consultative: assisting customers in adapting supply-chains, ramping up trade-compliance services and hedging freight flows through alternative routing and inventory strategies.

Some freight forwarders in emerging markets (like India) are seeing opportunistic upside: as firms shift manufacturing or sourcing away from China/US tilts, freight routes to India and Southeast Asia are getting more attention.

Disruption v/s Resilience

While tariffs are clearly complicating logistics dynamics, they haven’t brought global trade to a halt. The DHL study underscores that only ~13 % of global goods imports go to the U.S., so the broader trade system has buffers.

Still, the freight industry isn’t out of the woods: the timing of shipments is lumpy (front-loading ahead of tariffs), planning horizons are shorter, and pricing is under pressure. The net effect: disrupted freight lanes, increased costs (or margin squeeze for carriers), more compliance risk.

What to Watch Going Forward

Contract freight rates for containers will reflect the softness in demand as forward outlooks suggest rates may remain subdued. Rerouting and near-shoring efforts will accelerate: as companies look to avoid tariff risk, freight flows may shift regionally.

Meanwhile, logistics companies will need to offer more advisory services beyond transport with increased customs complexity and supply-chain cost inflation. In response, carrier strategies will split: some will invest in leaner operations + digitalisation while others may seek growth in non-US trade lanes.

US tariff pressures are acting as a brake on certain freight-market dynamics - particularly those tied to US inbound cargo and China-US supply chains - and logistics majors like DSV and DHL are visibly responding. While trade hasn’t collapsed, freight firms must navigate a more turbulent, higher-cost, and higher-complexity environment.

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