Middle East Air Cargo Rates Remain Flat in August

For the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region, inbound and outbound air freight flows in August 2025 reflect a market that is steady but navigating operational pressures. The global air cargo market meanwhile continues to show signs of strain.

When compared to global air cargo activity, the Middle East presents a slightly different picture that is marked by stable volumes, robust capacity growth, and sector-specific strengths, while global markets grapple with falling spot rates and trade disruptions.

According to WorldACD, the MESA region saw a 3 % month-on-month (MoM) dip in tonnages during August 2025, though volumes held flat year-on-year (YoY). This signals relative stability, particularly compared to the sharp declines seen earlier in the summer.

Outbound trends were supported by perishable exports, especially fresh produce and seafood from Gulf and South Asian hubs. eCommerce shipments, also continue to expand through Dubai and Doha as regional fulfillment hubs grow.

Meanwhile, capacity expansion at Dubai World Central (DWC), which recorded a +15 % YoY capacity increase in June–July gives a strong sign that carriers are positioning the UAE as a key global transit hub.

Inbound activity in MESA, while steady, has been pressured by occasional disruptions. For example, airspace closures in South Asia and the Lahore airport fire added friction to inbound flows, though most carriers report minimal service disruptions.

Import volumes also benefited from steady demand for consumer goods and industrial inputs across the Gulf, where economies remain strong.

Looking ahead, Cirium forecasts a 5 to 10 % YoY increase in air cargo capacity across the Middle East for the remainder of 2025, suggesting both inbound and outbound flows will continue to expand, supported by aircraft deliveries and new leasing arrangements.

Global Cargo Trends

On the global stage, August delivered mixed results. Global tonnages fell by 3 % MoM, though they were up 3–5 % YoY, depending on the data source. This indicates demand recovery, but with uneven performance across trade lanes.

According to Xeneta and WorldACD, global spot rates averaged US$2.55/kg, down –3 % YoY and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. This downward pressure highlights that capacity growth is outpacing demand.

Corridor Disruptions

The most significant global challenge came on Asia–U.S. routes, where shipments plunged 20–30 % YoY in August following US tariff changes and the removal of the de-minimis import exemption. Major carriers, including Cathay Pacific, have adjusted freighter allocations away from these corridors.

Furthermore, the global freighter fleet faces an aging profile and delivery delays for Boeing’s 777-8F and Airbus’s A350F could create future shortages, even as near-term bellyhold capacity from passenger flights remains high.

Middle East Resilience and Global Uncertainty

While the region mirrored global trends with a small MoM dip, stability in YoY volumes underscores resilience. Outbound flows remain strong, backed by perishables and e-commerce. Unlike the Middle East, global spot rates are under clear downward pressure, pointing to overcapacity or weakened demand on major lanes.

In terms of capacity Middle East hubs are expanding aggressively, while global freighter capacity faces long-term uncertainty due to delayed deliveries.

Finally, inbound cargo into the Middle East is stable despite disruptions, while outbound volumes show robust growth potential.

Strategic Bright Spot

In August 2025, the Middle East demonstrated a balanced air cargo performance, with inbound flows steady and outbound volumes supported by strong export sectors and growing capacity.

Globally, the story is more complex: while volumes are slightly up YoY, falling spot rates and trade disruptions are clouding the market.

Overall, the Middle East is positioning itself as a strategic bright spot, offering growth momentum at a time when global air cargo markets remain cautious and uneven.