Middle East 2nd Quarter Air Cargo Demand Weakens Amid Rising Capacity
In the second quarter of 2025, Middle Eastern air cargo demand showed notable signs of stress.
Cargo volumes declined relative to both past performance and emerging global trends, largely due to geopolitical tensions that disrupted flight paths and rattled trade corridors.
A Steep Contraction in Q1 Sets the Tone
IATA data shows that in Q1 2025 Middle Eastern airlines carried 7.7% less cargo year‑on‑year, while capacity eased by roughly 1.4% - resulting in a Cargo Load Factor (CLF) of only 43.9%, significantly below the global average.
Among routes, cargo between the Middle East and Europe declined steeply by 10%, and demand on the region’s biggest corridor, Middle East–Asia, dipped by 1.8% YoY.
June Snapshot: Continued Downturn Against Rising Supply
By June 2025, the contraction persisted. Demand shrank 3.2% year‑on‑year, while capacity - measured in available cargo tonne‑kilometres (ACTK) - grew by 1.5%, further dragging the CLF down.
Geopolitical conflict in Middle East airspace - over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon - forced rerouting, delays, and cancellations, particularly affecting routes to Europe and North America.
Cargo traffic on Middle East–Europe fell roughly 4.5%, while Middle East‑Asia trade still managed modest growth earlier in the quarter but reversed in June with an 8.4% month-on-month drop on that trade lane.
From Bad to Worse
When looking at the full Q2 period (April–June), we can infer that demand contracted more sharply than in Q1. Cargo demand is estimated to have declined by approximately 3 to 4% YoY across Q2.
Meanwhile, capacity rose slightly (around 1–2%), especially in June, intensifying capacity under-utilization. The CLF fell further, reaching levels between 42–43% by quarter end.
This trend contrasts sharply with global air cargo, which posted a modest 0.8% growth in June and around 1.6% international growth overall.
Key Drivers Behind the Weak Demand
Geopolitical Disruption: Warfare and escalating military tension over major airspace led to flight rerouting over longer paths, cancellations, and higher fuel costs—especially affecting freighter operations between the Middle East, Europe, and North America.
Trade Protectionism: U.S. tariff expansions and stricter de minimis rules depressed exports from Asia to the U.S., indirectly hitting Middle Eastern hubs that traditionally serve as pivot points.
Surging Capacity, Static Demand: Airlines expanded belly-hold availability through more passenger flights during the northern summer, but demand didn't keep pace, dragging CLFs lower.
Market Shift Toward Asia‑Pacific: While Asia maintained strong trade momentum, Middle Eastern hubs failed to capture that rebound - partly due to shifting routing strategies diverting to other global point-to-point corridors.
Outlook Heading into Q3 2025
According to DHL Global Forwarding, Q3 2025 demand in the Middle East is expected to stabilize, especially in pharma and e-commerce sectors. Growth may normalize but is projected to remain mild, not fast reversal.
Middle Eastern carriers like Emirates SkyCargo, Etihad Cargo, and Qatar Airways Cargo, continue investing in temperature-controlled pharma and e‑commerce payload. Yet capacity remains oversized relative to cargo flows in the short term.
While Q3 may bring some recovery or stabilization, Middle East carriers must manage capacity carefully and leverage growing e‑commerce and pharma segments to regain lost ground.
Read More: Air Freight Spot Rates Decline for the First Time in a Year in May 2025
