Dubai-Europe Tonnages Continue Surge As Global Demand Stabilizes

Air cargo tonnages from Dubai to Europe are continuing to boom, while overall global demand has broadly stabilized following a strong return of Asia Pacific volumes since the Lunar New Year (LNY) dip in early February, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

Analysis of week 10 (4-10 March) reveals that Dubai-Europe tonnages were at three times their level (+205%) this time last year, and around +7% up compared with the previous week.

In recent weeks, certain key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo and Bangkok have experienced exceptionally high air cargo demand to Europe since the start of this year, in large part linked to the disruptions to Asia-Europe container shipping caused by the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

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Dubai-Europe tonnages have been particularly strong, at more than double their level in recent weeks compared with this time last year. And the continuing surge in week 10 indicates this trend is showing no signs of weakening four weeks on from LNY.

Meanwhile, Bangkok-Europe demand also remains up by more than +30%, year on year (YoY), in week 10 (+33%), similar to the +32% in week 9.

But the surge in Colombo-Europe demand appears to softening. Although Colombo-Europe tonnages were still up +20%, year on year (YoY), in week 10, that compares with +35% in week 9 and around +80% in the previous three weeks.

Global picture

Looking at the wider global picture, total worldwide tonnages in week 10 were broadly flat compared with the previous week, after recovering by +3% in week 9 and by +14% the previous week, following a -11% drop around the LNY holiday week.

Average global rates also rose again slightly (+2%) compared with the previous week to $2.32 per kilo, roughly their level in the weeks leading up to LNY, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

As in the previous several weeks, tonnages from MESA origins are also strongly elevated compared with last year (+17%), although on a 2Wo2W basis they have slipped slightly (-4%), suggesting a possible weakening from the extreme highs of previous weeks.

Globally, average rates of US$2.32 per kilo in week 10 are -14% below their levels this time last year.

And overall worldwide air cargo capacity remains significantly up on last year’s levels (+9%), with double-digit percentage increases ex-Asia Pacific (+18%) and ex-Central & South America (+14%), year on year.

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