China to USA Air Cargo Market Weakens in February

Full-month figures for February suggest a weakening China to the USA air cargo market compared with China to Europe, as shippers adjust to the fast-changing policies and statements of the new Trump administration.

According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, combined tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the USA in February – corrected for last February’s extra day – were down, year on year by -10%, whereas China and Hong Kong to Europe chargeable weight was +4% higher than last February.

And those markets diverge on the pricing side as well, with China and Hong Kong to the USA spot rates of US$3.80 per kilo in February averaging -9% below their equivalent levels last year, whereas to Europe average spot prices of US$4.58 per kilo were +17% higher than last February.

The different timings of Lunar New Year (LNY), which fell on 29 January this year compared with 10 February last year, and February last year having a leap day, complicate both YoY and month-on-month (MoM) absolute comparisons, to some extent.

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But comparisons between the relative performances of the USA and Europe markets remain valid.

For example, compared with January, China and Hong Kong to the USA spot rates dropped -11%, whereas to Europe they held up much better, dropping just -2%, MoM, based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

And looking specifically at the Shanghai market, spot rates from Shanghai to the USA in February dropped -10%, MoM, to US$3.91 per kilo, while Shanghai to Europe spot rates saw a +6% MoM increase to US$4.47 per kilo.

Although it is still too early to form any firm conclusions about these differing patterns, the relatively weaker performance of the China to the USA air cargo market in February is consistent with an adjustment by Chinese e-commerce shippers to the suspension of China’s access to US customs-free ‘de minimis’ exemptions in early February, before that was reversed a few days later.

Companies that are more involved in the e-commerce business will have been more affected by this.

Global overview

Total worldwide tonnages in February were up, YoY, by +5% (corrected for 29 Feb 2024), led by YoY increases from Asia Pacific (+8%), Central & South America (+8%), Europe (+4%), and North America (+4%) origins.

That was offset by a -6% YoY decrease from Middle East & South Asia origins, compared with the heightened volumes from that region last February during the early stages of the Red Sea ocean freight capacity crisis.

Combining the worldwide figures for January and February (corrected), to eliminate the complications of the timings of LNY, shows a YoY increase of +3% for the first two months of 2025.

Read More: Global Air Cargo Demand Achieves Record Growth in 2024