Air Cargo Tonnages Up 3% in First Quarter of 2025 Ahead of New US Tariffs

Worldwide air cargo tonnages grew by +3%, year on year (YoY), in the first three months of 2025, with average global rates rising +4%, YoY, according to preliminary first-quarter (Q1) figures from WorldACD Market Data.

This low single-digit growth in Q1 2025 is very different from the levels seen last year – when growth averaged +11%, YoY, with Q4 still at +8%.

It reflects an uncertain market bracing for a disruptive new wave of US tariffs, and the removal of US de minimis exemptions for shipments from China and Hong Kong – and challenges to some of the supply chain models of the last two decades.

On a full-month basis, worldwide tonnages rose by +19%, month on month (MoM), in March from their depleted level in February resulting from the usual seasonal factory closures in the weeks following Lunar New Year.

Worldwide flown tonnages in March were back up close to their monthly levels in the second half of 2024, including demand from Asia Pacific origins that was higher than experienced in the peak season months of October and November.

Average worldwide rates in March of US$2.38 per kilo were +4% higher than the previous month, and up by +2%, YoY.

On a weekly basis, spot prices from Asia Pacific origins rose by a further +3%, week on week (WoW), to an average of US$3.80 per kilo in week 13 (24 to 30 March), around +8% higher than the equivalent week last year, despite a -3% drop in tonnages from Asia Pacific.

Spot rates from MESA rose by +5%, WoW, to $2.94 per kilo, although that’s -19% below their inflated level this time last year.

Worldwide spot rates edged up by a further +2%, WoW, to $2.70 per kilo, while worldwide average overall rates, based on a mix of spot and contract rates, edged up +1% to $2.45 per kilo. That’s +1% higher, year on year.

Read More: Air Cargo Demand Declines in February