The Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of near paralysis despite the announcement of a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with maritime activity far below normal levels and uncertainty continuing to dominate global shipping markets.
In the 24 hours following the ceasefire, only six vessels (one oil tanker and five bulk carriers) were recorded transiting the strait, compared to a pre-war average of roughly 130–140 ships per day.
Even in the days immediately before the truce, traffic had already collapsed to a handful of ships daily, highlighting the severity of disruption.
Since the ceasefire was announced, only a limited number of vessels have passed under strict controls, with the strait effectively still closed in operational terms. Thousands of ships and seafarers remain stranded in or around the Gulf, awaiting clarity on transit conditions.
Iran’s Terms for Passage
Iran has not reopened the strait unconditionally. Instead, it has imposed a controlled transit regime managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Ships must:
Obtain prior clearance and coordinate movements with Iranian forces
Use designated “safe corridors”, primarily along the northern channel
Demonstrate they are “non-hostile” (i.e., not linked to the US, Israel, or allies)
Pay transit tolls, reportedly reaching up to US$1–2 million per vessel, sometimes calculated per barrel for oil cargo.
Payments are being accepted in alternative currencies such as Chinese yuan or even cryptocurrencies, reflecting Iran’s attempt to bypass sanctions and formal financial systems.
Beyond Oil: Continued Strait of Hormuz Blockade Disrupting Gulf Food Supply Chains
This framework effectively transforms passage through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints into a negotiated and monetised privilege, rather than a guaranteed right under international law.
Shipping Industry Response
Global shipping companies have reacted cautiously. Major tanker operators, container lines, and oil majors have largely avoided the strait, citing unresolved safety risks, lack of insurance coverage, and unclear ceasefire terms.
Instead, current traffic is dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators and vessels linked to countries maintaining working relations with Iran.
Insurance premiums remain elevated, and many underwriters are unwilling to cover voyages without explicit security guarantees. As a result, even companies willing to comply with Iran’s terms face significant financial and legal uncertainty.
Governments are also intervening. India, for example, has urged Iran to expedite passage for its oil shipments during the ceasefire window, underscoring how national energy security is now tied to diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
Implications for Global Shipping
The current situation signals a structural shift in global maritime risk. Even if the ceasefire holds, analysts warn that backlogs could take weeks to clear, with full normalisation taking months.
Oil prices and freight rates will remain volatile due to constrained supply. The precedent of charging tolls could reshape maritime norms.
More broadly, Iran’s continued control over Hormuz introduces a new layer of geopolitical risk into global logistics. The strait, which handles a significant share of the world’s oil trade, is no longer simply a transit route - it has become a strategic bargaining tool.
Until there is a clear, enforceable agreement guaranteeing free and safe passage, global shipping will likely operate under a “restricted normal,” where movement is possible but highly conditional, costly, and politically charged.
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