The mood across global shipping is turning cautiously pessimistic as 2025 draws to a close. Structural oversupply - masked so far by rerouting and port congestion - is colliding with geopolitical and tariff uncertainty.
That caution is echoed in new macro-level industry forecasts. Fitch Ratings recently revised its outlook for global shipping to “deteriorating,” citing weak demand, rising economic headwinds, and risky policy shifts.
Nevertheless, the industry is resilient. A recently released trade-data analysis from VIZION API shows container volumes growing 3.5 to 4.2% in 2025 - outperforming early pessimistic forecasts.
Putting these perspectives together: 2026 looks set to be a balancing act — a year in which decelerating demand, rising capacity, and renewed geopolitical pressure will test the sector’s adaptability.
Oversupply + Unfinished Orderbooks
A historically large orderbook - roughly 31.7% of the existing fleet - remains unfilled, indicating many ships and containers could hit the market soon. Given that expected demand growth in 2026 is around 3%, while capacity could expand 3.6% or more, many shipowners may struggle to fill vessels.
This imbalance is already playing out: used containers are being dumped onto the market, pushing down second-hand prices. Container xChange notes “sizeable disposals” - as much as 100,000 to 150,000 TEU per year, with some lessors discussing programmes up to 270,000–300,000 TEU annually.
Shipping Lines See Mixed Q3 as Volumes Rise but Margins Tighten
At the same time, prices for new builds remain sticky, especially as carriers prioritise deploying their own equipment.
Demand: Shifting Flows, But Not Strong Enough
Global container trade rebounded this year despite a tough environment. According to VIZION API, containerised volumes reached 126.75 million TEU (January–August 2025), growing 4.4% year-on-year. Yet many major import markets - notably the US - have cooled. Tariffs and economic uncertainty have dampened demand, particularly from China-derived imports.
This suggests growth in 2026 will be more modest - weighted toward emerging trade corridors, intra-Asia flows, or rerouted trades.
Financial Stress on Intermediaries
The intermodal and leasing market is feeling pressure. At the recently concluded Intermodal Europe, participants flagged growing stress among non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOCCs) in Middle East–India–Southeast Asia lanes, pointing to longer payment terms and rising counterparty risk.
Broader regional signals back this up. The 2025 Asia Payment Survey from Coface shows a record number of firms reporting ultra-long payment delays. For smaller players - especially in emerging-market corridors - this could mean tighter liquidity, delayed shipments, or even defaults.
Geopolitics and Hidden Capacity
One important factor that has masked the oversupply problem so far is the detour shipping has taken around the Red Sea. That rerouting - through the Cape of Good Hope - has tied up 10–12% of fleet capacity, acting as a kind of hidden cushion.
If transits through the Red Sea or Suez Canal resume - or if congestion eases - that hidden capacity could instantly flood the market. In that scenario, freight rates and container demand could quickly slump.
Forecast for 2026: Where the Wind Is Blowing
Freight rates likely to slide. Given capacity growth outpacing demand, expect spot and contract rates to soften - possibly down 10–25%, per industry forecasts.
Second-hand container and vessel values to stay weak. With disposal programmes underway and few buyers in a disturbed market, used asset prices are likely to remain depressed through 2026.
Pressure grows on smaller players. NVOCCs and intermediaries in riskier corridors may see tightened margins, payment delays, and financial stress, especially if demand remains sluggish.
Lanes that could hold up better: China to emerging markets (Africa, Southeast Asia), intra-Asia, and India–Europe or regional trade corridors may perform relatively well - even if traditional trans-Pacific or China-to-U.S. trade softens.
Carriers will prioritise flexibility and lean operations. Given uncertainty, expect less new ordering, more scrapping or slow-steaming, and efforts to optimise utilisation and cut costs.
What to Watch
Route normalization - Any signs of shipping through Red Sea / Suez resuming rapidly could trigger a capacity glut.
Tariffs and trade policies - US and global trade restrictions remain a wildcard; new tariffs or trade frictions would dampen demand further.
Liquidity in emerging-market lanes - Defaults or payment delays among NVOCCs could disrupt service for small exporters/importers.
Regulatory pressure on fuel and emissions - Although temporarily on hold thanks to US opposition, long-term International Maritime Organization environmental regulations may raise operating costs.
Alternate shipping models / digital tools - Efficiency gains from automation, smarter planning, digitalisation and advanced stowage planning, could help mitigate cost and capacity pressure over time.
Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up as a “reset year.” The inflated rates and tight capacity driven by crises are likely to ease - but with that comes real risk for oversupply, depressed asset values, and pressure on weaker links in the chain.
For shippers, forwarders, and smaller operators: this is a moment to be conservative - plan contracts carefully, tighten credit lines, and avoid overcommitting. For bigger carriers that survive the shake-out, 2026 might simply be the calm before a new cycle: one built more on efficiency and stability than supply-chain disruptions.
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