The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a dual crisis that extends far beyond global oil markets, with mounting evidence that food supply chains across the Gulf are now under severe strain, threatening the daily needs of over 60 million people in the region.
The narrow waterway, which normally carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, has been effectively blocked amid escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
The disruption has already sent oil prices soaring and forced major producers to cut output as tankers remain stranded or rerouted.
But while the energy shock has dominated headlines, a deeper and potentially longer-lasting impact is unfolding in food supply systems - particularly in the import-dependent Gulf states.
A Region Heavily Reliant on Imports
Countries across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rely on imports for up to 80–90% of their food consumption. Much of this supply typically arrives via maritime routes that pass through Hormuz. With shipping lanes disrupted, vessels carrying grain, dairy, meat, and fresh produce have been delayed, diverted, or cancelled altogether.
Logistics providers are scrambling to reroute shipments through alternative ports or overland corridors, but these solutions are proving expensive and limited in scale. Inland transport costs are surging several-fold compared to sea freight.
The result is tightening inventories, longer delivery times, and early signs of rationing in some areas, particularly for perishable goods.
Fertiliser Shock Amplifies Food Risks
The crisis is being compounded by a parallel disruption in fertiliser supplies - an often overlooked but critical component of global food production. Around one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, much of it originating from Gulf producers.
With shipments halted, fertiliser prices have surged by as much as 30–40%, raising costs for farmers worldwide and threatening future crop yields.
Experts warn this could trigger a cascading effect: reduced fertiliser availability leads to lower agricultural output, which in turn drives global food prices higher and exacerbates shortages in import-dependent regions like the Gulf.
A Looming Humanitarian Dimension
According to recent analysis, a prolonged closure of the strait could place more than 60 million people at risk of a food supply crisis, particularly in countries with limited domestic agriculture and constrained storage capacity.
Even where stockpiles exist, they are often sufficient for only a few weeks of consumption under normal conditions. As the disruption stretches into months, governments are being forced to dip into reserves while seeking alternative supply routes.
The broader global impact is already visible. The United Nations reports rising food prices, driven by higher energy and freight costs, with staple commodities such as wheat, sugar, and vegetable oils seeing sharp increases.
Beyond Oil: A Systemic Supply Chain Crisis
The Hormuz crisis underscores the vulnerability of tightly interconnected global supply chains. The same chokepoint that moves oil also facilitates the flow of fertilisers, petrochemicals, and food commodities - meaning disruptions ripple across multiple sectors simultaneously.
Analysts increasingly warn that the situation could evolve into a full-scale food security crisis if the strait remains closed. Without a rapid de-escalation, Gulf economies face not just higher fuel costs, but the far more immediate challenge of ensuring consistent access to basic food supplies for tens of millions of residents.
As diplomatic efforts continue at the United Nations to secure safe passage through the strait, the stakes are no longer limited to energy markets. For much of the Gulf, the crisis has become a question of sustaining everyday life itself.
Read More: